In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of liquidity and breadth of available markets. Kalshi remains the top choice for those seeking US regulatory compliance. Manifold excels as a playground for casual forecasters using fictional currency. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram stands out as the optimal solution.
The prediction market sector has surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market platform. It serves US residents who cannot participate on Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of markets relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain categories of bets.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This makes it an excellent resource for developing forecasting skills and engaging with community-driven predictions — though it lacks the financial incentive for serious bettors. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus brings together probabilistic assessments from a network of professional forecasters. While no monetary stakes are involved, it provides valuable opportunities for establishing a public forecast record and specialising in long-term geopolitical questions. Academic institutions regularly reference its data when studying forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair remains the pioneering betting exchange, processing vast sums annually across sports and electoral markets. Strengths include fiat payment options, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Limitations encompass a 2-5% commission structure on net profits, absence of digital asset markets, and comparatively sparse political offerings relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For those based in Europe and internationally seeking maximum liquidity paired with the broadest range of markets: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies the cryptocurrency barrier while delivering full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order book. Start trading on PolyGram →