In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi offers the only federally-regulated option for American participants. Manifold delivers a community-focused experience using virtual currency rather than cash stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
The prediction market sector has surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market venue. It serves US-based traders who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include reduced market selection relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using play-currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. It functions as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in group predictions — though it caters to hobbyists rather than those seeking financial returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic assessments contributed by its community of experienced forecasters. Though it involves no cash stakes, it excels at establishing forecast credibility and analysing global risk scenarios. Academic institutions regularly reference its prediction performance benchmarks.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the original peer-to-peer betting marketplace, processing billions annually across sports and electoral markets. Strengths include fiat payment options, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Drawbacks encompass 2-5% charges on net gains, absence of digital asset markets, and narrower political market coverage than Polymarket offers.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum market depth and selection breadth: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain technicalities whilst preserving unrestricted access to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →