In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket leads on liquidity and market variety. Kalshi is best for US-regulated access. Manifold is best for social/fun markets with no real money. For European users, Polymarket via PolyGram is the clear winner.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity since 2024. Here's how the major platforms compare in 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US. It's accessible to American users (who are blocked from Polymarket) and has been growing rapidly. Downsides: limited market variety compared to Polymarket, and most US regulation makes many market types unavailable.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold uses play-money ("mana") rather than real money. It's a great tool for forecasting practice and community prediction — but not for profit-seeking traders. Over 10,000 community-created markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic forecasts from a community of analysts. No real money, but excellent for track-record building and geopolitical forecasting. Often cited in academic research on prediction accuracy.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair is the original betting exchange, handling billions in sports and political markets annually. Advantages: fiat currency, FCA-regulated, deep sports liquidity. Disadvantages: 2-5% commission on net winnings, no crypto markets, limited political coverage vs Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For European and global users who want the deepest liquidity and widest market variety: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram removes the crypto complexity while giving you access to Polymarket's full order book. Start trading on PolyGram →